Sunday, March 13, 2016

Statistical probability (presumption theory) and Grace Poe: dissent of Justice Carpio

"x x x.

There is no law or jurisprudence which supports the Solicitor General's contention that natural-born citizenship can be conferred on a foundling based alone on statistical probability. Absent any legal foundation for such argument, the Solicitor General cannot validly conclude that a 99.93% (or 99.83%) statistical probability that a foundling born in the Philippines is a natural-born Filipino citizen legally confers on such foundling natural-born citizenship. There is no constitutional provision or statute that confers natural-born citizenship based on statistical probability.

The Solicitor General's data speak of foreign and Filipino births in the Philippines. The data collected show the number of foreign and Filipino children born in the Philippines during the periods covered. This means that the figures reflect the total number of children born in the Philippines with known parents, either Filipino or foreigner. The data do not show the number of foundlings (those with unknown parentage) born in the Philippines from 1965 to 1975 and from 2010 to 2014. The data also do not show the number of foundlings who were later determined to have Filipino parentage. This is precisely because foundlings have unknown parents. A foundling's unknown parentage renders it quite difficult, if not impossible, to collect data on "the number of foreign and Filipino foundlings."

x x x."

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